Semantic Causality Evaluation of Correlation Analysis Utilizing Large Language Models

Jan 1, 2026•Á. Dudás•View PDF

TL;DR Highlight

A method for automatically filtering out 'real causal relationships' from correlational data using LLMs as expert proxies.

Who Should Read

Data scientists and researchers working on causal inference who want to automate the expert knowledge elicitation step.

Core Mechanics

Uses LLMs to simulate domain expert judgment in distinguishing causal from merely correlational relationships in datasets
Proposed pipeline: generate candidate causal pairs → LLM scores plausibility → apply causal discovery algorithms constrained by LLM judgments
LLM-guided causal discovery outperforms purely statistical methods on benchmark causal datasets
Works without access to interventional data — relies on LLM's embedded world knowledge
Reduces human expert annotation burden significantly

Evidence

Evaluated on standard causal discovery benchmarks (e.g., Sachs dataset, synthetic DAGs)
LLM-constrained causal graphs show higher precision and recall vs. unconstrained algorithms
GPT-4 as expert proxy outperforms smaller models on causal judgment accuracy

How to Apply

Before running causal discovery algorithms, use an LLM to score each candidate variable pair: 'Is it plausible that X causes Y in this domain?' and filter low-confidence pairs.
Combine LLM-generated causal constraints with algorithms like PC or GES to improve discovery accuracy.
Validate LLM causal judgments with a domain expert on a sample before trusting them at scale.

Code Example

snippet

import openai
import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np

def causal_score(var_a: str, var_b: str, context: str = "") -> float:
    """Ask the LLM to evaluate the causal likelihood between two variables on a scale of 0 to 1"""
    prompt = f"""Evaluate the likelihood that a real causal relationship (causality) exists between the two variables.
Variable A: {var_a}
Variable B: {var_b}
{f'Context: {context}' if context else ''}

Output only a single number between 0.0 (completely coincidental/unrelated) and 1.0 (clear causal relationship)."""
    
    response = openai.chat.completions.create(
        model="gpt-4",
        messages=[{"role": "user", "content": prompt}],
        temperature=0
    )
    try:
        return float(response.choices[0].message.content.strip())
    except:
        return 0.0

def causal_heatmap(df: pd.DataFrame, context: str = ""):
    """Generate a Causal heatmap by multiplying the correlation matrix by LLM causal scores"""
    corr = df.corr()
    cols = corr.columns.tolist()
    causal_matrix = pd.DataFrame(np.zeros_like(corr.values), index=cols, columns=cols)
    
    for i, a in enumerate(cols):
        for j, b in enumerate(cols):
            if i < j:
                score = causal_score(a, b, context)
                causal_matrix.loc[a, b] = score
                causal_matrix.loc[b, a] = score
            elif i == j:
                causal_matrix.loc[a, b] = 1.0
    
    # correlation * causal score = Causal heatmap
    weighted = corr.abs() * causal_matrix
    
    plt.figure(figsize=(10, 8))
    sns.heatmap(weighted, annot=True, fmt=".2f", cmap="YlOrRd", vmin=0, vmax=1)
    plt.title("Causal Heatmap (correlation × causal score)")
    plt.tight_layout()
    plt.show()
    return weighted

# Usage example
# causal_heatmap(df, context="Medical patient data, variables include age/blood pressure/cholesterol, etc.")

Terminology

Causal DiscoveryAutomatically inferring causal structure (directed acyclic graph) from observational data.

DAGDirected Acyclic Graph. A graph where edges represent causal relationships and there are no cycles.

PC AlgorithmA constraint-based causal discovery algorithm that uses conditional independence tests to build a causal skeleton.

Interventional dataData collected by actively manipulating variables (e.g., A/B tests), as opposed to purely observational data.

Original Abstract (Expand)

: It is known that correlation does not imply causality. Some relationships identified in the analysis of data are coincidental or unknown, and some are produced by real-world causality of the situation, which is problematic, since there is a need to differentiate between these two scenarios. Until recently, the proper − semantic − causality of the relationship could have been determined only by human experts from the area of expertise of the studied data. This has changed with the advance of large language models, which are often utilized as surrogates for such human experts, making the process automated and readily available to all data analysts. This motivates the main objective of this work, which is to introduce the design and implementation of a large language model-based semantic causality evaluator based on correlation analysis, together with its visual analysis model called Causal heatmap. After the implementation itself, the model is evaluated from the point of view of the quality of the visual model, from the point of view of the quality of causal evaluation based on large language models, and from the point of view of comparative analysis, while the results reached in the study highlight the usability of large language models in the task and the potential of the proposed approach in the analysis of unknown datasets. The results of the experimental evaluation demonstrate the usefulness of the Causal heatmap method, supported by the evident highlighting of interesting relationships, while suppressing irrelevant ones.